Customer value · Data & Insights Studio
Stop paying for one-time discount-chasers.
A customer-lifetime-value simulator for retail and FMCG. Margin over a horizon, turned into the ceiling on what you pay to acquire a shopper.
Live tool · one self-contained file · yours to keep
The problem it solves
A shopper's value isn't gross sales.
It's margin over a horizon: order value and frequency at your gross margin, minus returns, promo reliance, fulfilment and payment fees, discounted and weighted for how likely they are to keep buying.
Get that number and acquisition stops being a race to the lowest cost-per-purchase. This simulator builds CLV from the levers that actually drive it: order value, frequency, retention, return rate, margin. It turns that into the ceiling on what you can afford to pay.
The decisions you walk away with: what a segment is genuinely worth, the most you can pay to acquire it, and whether your media budget is buying one-time discount-chasers or repeat customers.
How it's different
Most CLV tools hand you a score. This one hands you the acquisition decision.
Move the levers on a modelled shopper and watch margin-based CLV, and the CAC you can afford, move with it.
It runs on the standard, defensible methods: BG/NBD and Gamma-Gamma, the retail workhorse for repeat buying, and survival models for subscriptions. And it closes the loop to media: same budget, cheapest conversions versus best CLV to CAC.
In your hands
What you get.
- Margin-based CLV, liveMove order value, frequency, retention, return rate and margin. Watch lifetime margin recompute over your chosen horizon and discount rate.
- What you can afford to payThe CAC ceiling from CLV and the 3:1 benchmark, with the headroom or overspend against your current CAC.
- Same budget, two waysA side-by-side of chasing the cheapest conversions versus the best CLV to CAC.
- The method and the dataThe models explained in plain English, with the data a live version needs.
And the rest
One self-contained file. No login. Works in any browser, exports any chart or table to CSV or image. A walkthrough of the findings and a refreshed build when new data lands, all included.
- No login, no seat to learn
- Exports to CSV or image
- Walkthrough of the findings included
- Refreshed build when new data lands
What you can afford to pay
Lifetime value sets the ceiling on acquisition cost, and the common benchmark is a 3:1 ratio. The tool shows the most you could pay per shopper at a healthy ratio, and the headroom or overspend against your current CAC.
When the economics are strong, you can bid up and win more of those shoppers before a competitor does.
Alternatives
What it beats.
Predictive CLV platforms
They score every customer inside a platform you integrate and subscribe to. The number lands in a profile; the decision is still yours.
Spreadsheet LTV
Crude: blind to churn and repeat-purchase behaviour.
Consultancy models
A bespoke study, delivered slowly, handed back as a deck.
Not sure if this is the one?
Eight quick questions. Within 24 hours we'll come back with the solutions worth considering and the approximate budget.